Longtime readers might have noticed that I rarely spend much time writing about macroeconomic issues. One of my core beliefs is that it’s almost impossible to predict the direction of interest rates, ...

One of my favorite pieces of research is the quarterly Morningstar Markets Observer, which offers a wealth of information from a big-picture perspective. Particularly interesting is the report’s ...

Bearish sentiment is much more effective at identifying market lows than highs; current readings can remain low for extended bull runs. Our Master Sentiment Indicator, combining nine sentiment metrics ...

All businesses, from startup coffee roasters to billion-dollar e-commerce companies, are vested in tracking their progress, figuring out what works and fixing what doesn’t. That’s where Key ...

There’s an old joke in economics that stock markets have predicted nine out of the past five recessions. The point being that predicting a recession solely based on the stock market is difficult.

The market is primed to go higher, supported by new directional put and call premium indicators. Directional premiums measure the amount of option money executed at the asking price, so they represent ...

Lagging indicators are widely used to measure business, economic, and financial market trends. Lagging indicators measure events that have already happened. Lagging indicators lack predictive power ...

2024 is over (phew!). We had weird consumer sentiment vibes, Bitcoin went to the moon, and the economy might have achieved a soft landing. And that's just a few 2024 indicators! As we enter 2025, what ...